The concept of landscape-ecological prognoses for temperate forest ecosystems in light of forthcoming climate changes is presented. Predictive analysis is based on empirical-statistical modeling ecosystems and on descriptions of their space organization. The boreal bioclimatic ecotone of the Volga river basin is used as an example for carry out the experience of analytical and cartographic prognostic scenario modeling of the nearest and distant future for given ecoregion and their paleogeographical analogs in upper Pleistocene and Holocene. The mechanisms of local and regional response of forest ecosystems to the anticipated global warming in the 21st centuries have been assessed, according to global climate prediction model GISS-1993 (modernized version 2003–2006). The quantitative methods of landscape-ecological forecasts have been developed by the author are described in detail. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend is predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime and plant cover structure of the territory. An analogous picture results from paleo-prognostic reconstructions of the optima of Holocene and Mikulino interglacial period.
| Published in | American Journal of Environmental Protection (Volume 2, Issue 1) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12 |
| Page(s) | 10-36 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2013. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Global Changes, Empirical-Statistical Modeling, Landscape-Ecological Prognosis, Paleoreconstruction
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APA Style
Erland G. Kolomyts. (2013). Zonal Ecosystems of Volga River Basin under Global Warming: Prognostic and Paleogeographical Scenarios. American Journal of Environmental Protection, 2(1), 10-36. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12
ACS Style
Erland G. Kolomyts. Zonal Ecosystems of Volga River Basin under Global Warming: Prognostic and Paleogeographical Scenarios. Am. J. Environ. Prot. 2013, 2(1), 10-36. doi: 10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12
AMA Style
Erland G. Kolomyts. Zonal Ecosystems of Volga River Basin under Global Warming: Prognostic and Paleogeographical Scenarios. Am J Environ Prot. 2013;2(1):10-36. doi: 10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12,
author = {Erland G. Kolomyts},
title = {Zonal Ecosystems of Volga River Basin under Global Warming: Prognostic and Paleogeographical Scenarios},
journal = {American Journal of Environmental Protection},
volume = {2},
number = {1},
pages = {10-36},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajep.20130201.12},
abstract = {The concept of landscape-ecological prognoses for temperate forest ecosystems in light of forthcoming climate changes is presented. Predictive analysis is based on empirical-statistical modeling ecosystems and on descriptions of their space organization. The boreal bioclimatic ecotone of the Volga river basin is used as an example for carry out the experience of analytical and cartographic prognostic scenario modeling of the nearest and distant future for given ecoregion and their paleogeographical analogs in upper Pleistocene and Holocene. The mechanisms of local and regional response of forest ecosystems to the anticipated global warming in the 21st centuries have been assessed, according to global climate prediction model GISS-1993 (modernized version 2003–2006). The quantitative methods of landscape-ecological forecasts have been developed by the author are described in detail. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend is predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime and plant cover structure of the territory. An analogous picture results from paleo-prognostic reconstructions of the optima of Holocene and Mikulino interglacial period.},
year = {2013}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Zonal Ecosystems of Volga River Basin under Global Warming: Prognostic and Paleogeographical Scenarios AU - Erland G. Kolomyts Y1 - 2013/02/20 PY - 2013 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12 DO - 10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12 T2 - American Journal of Environmental Protection JF - American Journal of Environmental Protection JO - American Journal of Environmental Protection SP - 10 EP - 36 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2328-5699 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12 AB - The concept of landscape-ecological prognoses for temperate forest ecosystems in light of forthcoming climate changes is presented. Predictive analysis is based on empirical-statistical modeling ecosystems and on descriptions of their space organization. The boreal bioclimatic ecotone of the Volga river basin is used as an example for carry out the experience of analytical and cartographic prognostic scenario modeling of the nearest and distant future for given ecoregion and their paleogeographical analogs in upper Pleistocene and Holocene. The mechanisms of local and regional response of forest ecosystems to the anticipated global warming in the 21st centuries have been assessed, according to global climate prediction model GISS-1993 (modernized version 2003–2006). The quantitative methods of landscape-ecological forecasts have been developed by the author are described in detail. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend is predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime and plant cover structure of the territory. An analogous picture results from paleo-prognostic reconstructions of the optima of Holocene and Mikulino interglacial period. VL - 2 IS - 1 ER -
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