Over the years, gold has showed some promises in performing the role of value preservation for the holders and as a result helping countries in stabilizing their reserves. For this reason, several countries still maintain part of their reserves in gold, even though gold was officially de-pegged from countries’ currencies after the collapse of the Bretton woods system. In this study, we employed panel data regression model to examine the determinants of demand for gold by countries. The result showed a positive relationship between the demand for gold and the price of gold, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and private credit to GDP. It revealed that trade openness and inflation rate had a negative relationship with the demand for gold. Also, it was revealed that the price of gold had a positive relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves both in the short run and in the long run. On the other hand, while exchange rate had a positive relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves in the short run it exerts a negative relationship in the long run. Also trade openness and GDP growth rate had a negative relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves both in the short-run and in the long run. But inflation rate had a negative relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommends that Nigerian government should adopt a pro-active measure in strengthening and enhancing the total reserve base of the economy by including gold as a safe and hedging asset in the reserve portfolio, thereby enhancing the performance and resilience of our total reserves in the face of economic and financial downturns.
Published in | Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 11, Issue 1) |
DOI | 10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14 |
Page(s) | 27-44 |
Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Gold Reserves, Demand for Gold, External Reserves, Price, Exchange Rate
[1] | Adeola, O. O. (2017). Foreign Capital Flows and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies. Dissertation presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Finance (Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences) at Stellenbosch University. |
[2] | Aderibigbe, N. (2018). The 36-Year-old Enterpreneur building Nigeria’s First gold Refinery and Her Vision to transform an entire Industry. Retrieved on 15/09/19 from https://thenerveafrica.com/24308/the-36-year-old-entrepreneur-building-nigerias-first-gold-refinery-and-her-vision-to-transform-an-entire-industry/ |
[3] | Balassa, B. (1990). “The Effects of Interest Rates on Savings in Developing Countries,” Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, no. 172 (March), pp. 101-18. |
[4] | Brooks, C. (2013). ‘Introductory Econometrics for Finance’. |
[5] | Cai, J., Cheung, Y., and Wong, M. (2001). “What Moves the Gold Market?” Journal of Futures Markets, vol. 21, no. 3 (March), pp. 257-78. |
[6] | Capie, F., Mills, T., and Wood, G. (2005). “Gold as a Hedge against the Dollar,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, vol. 15, no. 4, October 2005, pp. 343-52. |
[7] | Central Bank of Nigeria (2018). Statistical Bulletin. Central Bank of Nigeria. Accessed from http://www.cenbank.org. |
[8] | The Eagle Online (2018). History made as Kian Smith begins construction of Nigeria’s first gold refinery. Retrieved on 12/09/19 from https://theeagleonline.com.ng/history-made-as-kian-smith-begins-construction-of-nigerias-first-gold-refinery/ |
[9] | Essen, C. (2018). FG lays foundation of gold refinery in Ogun. Retrieved on 15/09/19 from https://guardian.ng/news/fg-lays-foundation-of-gold-refinery-in-ogun/ |
[10] | Fiscor, S. (2003). Higher Prices Reconfigure Gold Market Strategies, Editorial, Engineering & Mining Journal (00958948), p-p. 2-2. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=11503138&site=ehost-live |
[11] | Finelib (n.d.). List of Gold (AU) Natural Resources Deposit States in Nigeria. Retrieved on 12/09/19 from https://www.finelib.com/about/nigeria-natural-resources/list-of-gold-au-natural-resources-deposit-states-in-nigeria/66 |
[12] | Greene, W. H. (2008). Econometric analysis. 6th ed., Upper Saddle River, N. J.: Prentice Hall. |
[13] | Haugom, H. (1991). “The Supply and Demand for Gold”. Ph.D. dissertation, Simon Fraser University. |
[14] | International Financial Statistics (2019). World Official Gold Holding as of July 2019. Retrieved on 28/07/2019 from 16c267d37f300000314e.pdf (spf.com.tw). |
[15] | Kohler, U. & Kreuter, F. (2009). Data Analysis Using Stata 2nd ed., Stata Press. |
[16] | Kutan, A., and Tansu A. (2004). “Public Information Arrival and Gold Market Returns in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Istanbul Gold Exchange,” Scientific Journal of Administrative Development, vol. 2, pp. 13-26. |
[17] | Markowitz, H. (1952). “Portfolio Selection”, Journal of Finance, vol. 7, no. 1, March 1952, pp. 77-91. |
[18] | Mining Africa (n.d.). The Nigeria Mining Industry – An Underdeveloped Industry. Retrieved on 15/09/19 from https://www.miningafrica.net/mining-countries-africa/nigeria/ |
[19] | Mishkin, F. (1986). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 6th ed., ISBN 0-321-11362-4. USA: Addison Wesley. |
[20] | O’Connor, F. a., Lucey, B. M., Batten, J. a., & Baur, D. G. (2015). The financial economics of gold — A survey. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 186–205. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.07.005 |
[21] | Oktay, B., Öztunç, H., & Serİn, Z. V. (2015). Determinants of Gold Reserves : An Empirical Analysis for G-7 Countries, 38 (October 2015), 8–16. http://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30172-1 |
[22] | Oladeji (2019). Emefiele unveil 5-year plan by CBN, pledges to grow economy. Retrieved on 15/09/19 from https://1stnews.com/emefiele-unveils-5-year-plan-by-cbn-pledges-to-grow-economy/ |
[23] | Olokoyo, F. O., et al. (2009). "Econometric Analysis of Foreign Reserves and Some Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria (1970–2007)." African Development Review 21 (3): 454-475. |
[24] | Parisi, A., Parisi, F. and Diaz, D. (2008). Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models. Journal of Multinational Financial Management. 18, pp. 477–487. |
[25] | Pihlman, J., H. V. D. Hoorn (2010) “Procyclicality in Central Bank Reserve Management: Evidence from the Crisis” IMF Working Paper, WP/10/150. |
[26] | Pulvermacher, K., M. (2006). Gold: does it make sense for South African investors? World Gold Council Research Studies (AUGUST 2006), 1-15. |
[27] | Rare Gold Nuggets (2016). Gold Mining and Prospecting in Nigeria. Retrieved on 15/09/19 from http://raregoldnuggets.com/?p=2147 |
[28] | Refinitiv GFMS, Metal Focus and World Gold Council, (2018). Annual investment demand estimates Retrieved on 15/10/19 from http://wgc.org. |
[29] | Refinitiv GFMS, Metal Focus and World Gold Council, (2018). LBMA Gold Price and 2018 above-ground estimates. Retrieved on 15/10/19 from http://wgc.org. |
[30] | Rao, B. S. and Nagabhushanam, K. (1960), “India’s Demand for Import of Non-Monetary Gold, Non-Monetary Silver and Merchandise, 1901-1913,” Indian Economics Journal, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 34-38. |
[31] | Rogoff, K. (2010). Ten-Thousand- Dollar Gold? [Article]. International Economy, 24 (4), 62-63. |
[32] | Rossi, S. (2013). Post-crisis challenges to central bank independence. The LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference, (September), 1–10. |
[33] | Rustagi, R. P. (2010). Financial Management. India: Taxmann Publications (P.) Ltd. ISBN 978-81-7194-786-7. |
[34] | Starr, M., K. Tran (2008) “Determinants of the Physical Demand for Gold: Evidence from Panel Data” The World Economy 31, 416-436. |
[35] | Torres-Reyna, O. (n.d.) Panel Data Analysis: Fixed & Random Effects (using Stata 10.x). Retrieved on 10/01/2020 from http://dss.princeton.edu/training/ |
[36] | Wigglesworth. R. (2018). “How a volatility virus infected Wall Street”. The Financial Times. |
[37] | World Bank (2018). World Development Indicators. The World Bank Washington DC, USA. Accessed from http://www.worldbank.org |
[38] | World Gold Council. (2016). Gold : valuable reserve amid unprecedented policy environment. Retrieved on 20/09/2019 from http://www.gold.org/research/gold-valuable-reserve-amidunprecedentedpolicy-environment |
[39] | World Gold Council (2018). Enhancing the Performance of alternatives with gold. Retrieved on 15/09/19 from http://wgc.org/ |
APA Style
Paul Atanda Orebiyi, Mmeyene-Abasi Essien Archibong. (2022). Gold Demand Determinants and Reserve Building Capacity of the Nigerian Economy: Inputs from a Panel Analysis of Selected Countries. Journal of World Economic Research, 11(1), 27-44. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14
ACS Style
Paul Atanda Orebiyi; Mmeyene-Abasi Essien Archibong. Gold Demand Determinants and Reserve Building Capacity of the Nigerian Economy: Inputs from a Panel Analysis of Selected Countries. J. World Econ. Res. 2022, 11(1), 27-44. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14
@article{10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14, author = {Paul Atanda Orebiyi and Mmeyene-Abasi Essien Archibong}, title = {Gold Demand Determinants and Reserve Building Capacity of the Nigerian Economy: Inputs from a Panel Analysis of Selected Countries}, journal = {Journal of World Economic Research}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {27-44}, doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14}, url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14}, eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.20221101.14}, abstract = {Over the years, gold has showed some promises in performing the role of value preservation for the holders and as a result helping countries in stabilizing their reserves. For this reason, several countries still maintain part of their reserves in gold, even though gold was officially de-pegged from countries’ currencies after the collapse of the Bretton woods system. In this study, we employed panel data regression model to examine the determinants of demand for gold by countries. The result showed a positive relationship between the demand for gold and the price of gold, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and private credit to GDP. It revealed that trade openness and inflation rate had a negative relationship with the demand for gold. Also, it was revealed that the price of gold had a positive relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves both in the short run and in the long run. On the other hand, while exchange rate had a positive relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves in the short run it exerts a negative relationship in the long run. Also trade openness and GDP growth rate had a negative relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves both in the short-run and in the long run. But inflation rate had a negative relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommends that Nigerian government should adopt a pro-active measure in strengthening and enhancing the total reserve base of the economy by including gold as a safe and hedging asset in the reserve portfolio, thereby enhancing the performance and resilience of our total reserves in the face of economic and financial downturns.}, year = {2022} }
TY - JOUR T1 - Gold Demand Determinants and Reserve Building Capacity of the Nigerian Economy: Inputs from a Panel Analysis of Selected Countries AU - Paul Atanda Orebiyi AU - Mmeyene-Abasi Essien Archibong Y1 - 2022/02/19 PY - 2022 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14 DO - 10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14 T2 - Journal of World Economic Research JF - Journal of World Economic Research JO - Journal of World Economic Research SP - 27 EP - 44 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2328-7748 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20221101.14 AB - Over the years, gold has showed some promises in performing the role of value preservation for the holders and as a result helping countries in stabilizing their reserves. For this reason, several countries still maintain part of their reserves in gold, even though gold was officially de-pegged from countries’ currencies after the collapse of the Bretton woods system. In this study, we employed panel data regression model to examine the determinants of demand for gold by countries. The result showed a positive relationship between the demand for gold and the price of gold, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and private credit to GDP. It revealed that trade openness and inflation rate had a negative relationship with the demand for gold. Also, it was revealed that the price of gold had a positive relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves both in the short run and in the long run. On the other hand, while exchange rate had a positive relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves in the short run it exerts a negative relationship in the long run. Also trade openness and GDP growth rate had a negative relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves both in the short-run and in the long run. But inflation rate had a negative relationship with Nigeria’s total reserves in the long run. Based on these findings, the study recommends that Nigerian government should adopt a pro-active measure in strengthening and enhancing the total reserve base of the economy by including gold as a safe and hedging asset in the reserve portfolio, thereby enhancing the performance and resilience of our total reserves in the face of economic and financial downturns. VL - 11 IS - 1 ER -