Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic; Timothy Peter Moulton; Mauricio Lima; Fabian Jaksic

doi:doi:10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic

Published in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (Volume 6, Issue 1)

Received: 22 February 2021 Accepted: 4 March 2021 Published: 26 March 2021

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Abstract

During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.

Published in	Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (Volume 6, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
Page(s)	23-30
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Malaria Dynamics, Climate, HIV, Population Size

References

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APA Style

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic. (2021). Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 6(1), 23-30. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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ACS Style

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic; Timothy Peter Moulton; Mauricio Lima; Fabian Jaksic. Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecol. Evol. Biol. 2021, 6(1), 23-30. doi: 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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AMA Style

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic. Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecol Evol Biol. 2021;6(1):23-30. doi: 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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@article{10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15,
  author = {Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic and Timothy Peter Moulton and Mauricio Lima and Fabian Jaksic},
  title = {Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth},
  journal = {Ecology and Evolutionary Biology},
  volume = {6},
  number = {1},
  pages = {23-30},
  doi = {10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.eeb.20210601.15},
  abstract = {During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth
AU  - Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic
AU  - Timothy Peter Moulton
AU  - Mauricio Lima
AU  - Fabian Jaksic
Y1  - 2021/03/26
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
T2  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
JF  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
JO  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
SP  - 23
EP  - 30
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3762
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
AB  - During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.
VL  - 6
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic

Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University Catholic of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Timothy Peter Moulton

Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of the Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Mauricio Lima

Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University Catholic of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Fabian Jaksic

Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University Catholic of Chile, Santiago, Chile

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APA Style

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic. (2021). Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 6(1), 23-30. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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ACS Style

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic; Timothy Peter Moulton; Mauricio Lima; Fabian Jaksic. Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecol. Evol. Biol. 2021, 6(1), 23-30. doi: 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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AMA Style

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic. Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecol Evol Biol. 2021;6(1):23-30. doi: 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15,
  author = {Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic and Timothy Peter Moulton and Mauricio Lima and Fabian Jaksic},
  title = {Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth},
  journal = {Ecology and Evolutionary Biology},
  volume = {6},
  number = {1},
  pages = {23-30},
  doi = {10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.eeb.20210601.15},
  abstract = {During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth
AU  - Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic
AU  - Timothy Peter Moulton
AU  - Mauricio Lima
AU  - Fabian Jaksic
Y1  - 2021/03/26
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
T2  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
JF  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
JO  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
SP  - 23
EP  - 30
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3762
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
AB  - During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.
VL  - 6
IS  - 1
ER  -

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