Due to the importance of the wheat crop which represents 90% of the grain consumed, In this papers, we compared between the following statistical methods : Box and Jenkins model, exponential smoothing models (with trend and without seasonal) and Simple regression for estimating and forecasting to two time series of wheat(production and import). We reached to the following results: 1. Brown exponential smoothing model for modeling the imported wheat series. 2. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model for modeling the product wheat series. For the wheat crop, the ratio of production to consumption is expected to reach 6.3% in 2015 and continues to decline even up to 5.4% in 2020. This means that the problem of food security well be worse in Yemen.
| Published in | American Journal of Applied Mathematics (Volume 4, Issue 3) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12 |
| Page(s) | 124-131 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Time Series, Wheat Crop, Forecasting, Box and Jenkins, Exponential Smoothing
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APA Style
Douaik Ahmed, Youssfi Elkettan, Abdulbakee Kasem. (2016). Application of Statistical Methods of Time-Series for Estimating and Forecasting the Wheat Series in Yemen (Production and Import). American Journal of Applied Mathematics, 4(3), 124-131. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12
ACS Style
Douaik Ahmed; Youssfi Elkettan; Abdulbakee Kasem. Application of Statistical Methods of Time-Series for Estimating and Forecasting the Wheat Series in Yemen (Production and Import). Am. J. Appl. Math. 2016, 4(3), 124-131. doi: 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12
AMA Style
Douaik Ahmed, Youssfi Elkettan, Abdulbakee Kasem. Application of Statistical Methods of Time-Series for Estimating and Forecasting the Wheat Series in Yemen (Production and Import). Am J Appl Math. 2016;4(3):124-131. doi: 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12,
author = {Douaik Ahmed and Youssfi Elkettan and Abdulbakee Kasem},
title = {Application of Statistical Methods of Time-Series for Estimating and Forecasting the Wheat Series in Yemen (Production and Import)},
journal = {American Journal of Applied Mathematics},
volume = {4},
number = {3},
pages = {124-131},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajam.20160403.12},
abstract = {Due to the importance of the wheat crop which represents 90% of the grain consumed, In this papers, we compared between the following statistical methods : Box and Jenkins model, exponential smoothing models (with trend and without seasonal) and Simple regression for estimating and forecasting to two time series of wheat(production and import). We reached to the following results: 1. Brown exponential smoothing model for modeling the imported wheat series. 2. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model for modeling the product wheat series. For the wheat crop, the ratio of production to consumption is expected to reach 6.3% in 2015 and continues to decline even up to 5.4% in 2020. This means that the problem of food security well be worse in Yemen.},
year = {2016}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Application of Statistical Methods of Time-Series for Estimating and Forecasting the Wheat Series in Yemen (Production and Import) AU - Douaik Ahmed AU - Youssfi Elkettan AU - Abdulbakee Kasem Y1 - 2016/05/04 PY - 2016 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12 DO - 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12 T2 - American Journal of Applied Mathematics JF - American Journal of Applied Mathematics JO - American Journal of Applied Mathematics SP - 124 EP - 131 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2330-006X UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.12 AB - Due to the importance of the wheat crop which represents 90% of the grain consumed, In this papers, we compared between the following statistical methods : Box and Jenkins model, exponential smoothing models (with trend and without seasonal) and Simple regression for estimating and forecasting to two time series of wheat(production and import). We reached to the following results: 1. Brown exponential smoothing model for modeling the imported wheat series. 2. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model for modeling the product wheat series. For the wheat crop, the ratio of production to consumption is expected to reach 6.3% in 2015 and continues to decline even up to 5.4% in 2020. This means that the problem of food security well be worse in Yemen. VL - 4 IS - 3 ER -
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